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   งานวิจัย
แสดงโครงการวิจัย
แสดงกลุ่มโครงการวิจัย
ข้อมูลประกันคุณภาพ


  โครงการวิจัย หน้าแรก  ค้นหา แนะนำ  

ผลกระทบการเปลี่ยนแปลงสภาพภูมิอากาศและการปรับตัวของชุมชน: การย้ายถิ่นเพื่อหาอาชีพอื่น
Where the Rain Falls Action-Research Programme

หัวหน้าโครงการ นายพนมศักดิ์ พรหมบุรมย์
บริหารจัดการที่ ศูนย์วิจัยระบบทรัพยากรเกษตร
แหล่งสนับสนุนงานวิจัย Care International (France) และ United Nation University (UNU) of Bonne
วันที่ดำเนินการ 1 ตุลาคม 2554 - 31 มกราคม 2555



กลุ่มวิจัย

  1. กลุ่มวิจัยเพิ่มผลผลิตทางการเกษตร

รายชื่อนักวิจัย

  1. นายพนมศักดิ์ พรหมบุรมย์ (หัวหน้าโครงการ)
  2. นางสาวประทานทิพย์ กระมล (นักวิจัยร่วม)
  3. นายปรัชวิน สมศักดิ์ (นักวิจัยร่วม)
  4. นางสาวพิมพิมล แก้วมณี (นักวิจัยร่วม)
 

วัตถุประสงค์โครงการ

1.ศึกษาความสัมพันธ์ผลกระทบของการเปลี่ยนแปลงด้านภูมิอากาศกับการปรับเปลี่ยนวิถีชีวิต และการย้ายถิ่นของชุมชน
2. ศึกษาวิธีการปรับตัวของชุมชนในด้านต่าง ๆ ต่อการเปลี่ยนแปลงทางภูมิอากาศ
3. วิเคราะห์หาแนวทางที่จะช่วยสนับสนุนและส่งเสริมความสามารถการปรับตัวของชุมชน

ลักษณะโครงการ

The “Where the rain falls: climate change, hunger and human mobility” (“Rainfalls”), supported by AXA Re Research Fund and the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation aims to improve the understanding about how rainfall variability affects food and livelihood security, and how these factors interact with household decisions about mobility/migration among groups of people particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Our research focuses on perceived as well as measured changes in rainfall (e.g. extended dry or wet periods, droughts or floods, erratic rainfall) and shifting seasons. These changes influence crop yields, food production and livestock. The impact of changing weather patterns on local food production, food availability, and prices may lead to food insecurity and shortages. People have developed different strategies to cope with stress and variability related to food and livelihood security. The Rainfalls project is interested in understanding why people react differently to stress caused by changing weather patterns and food insecurity. One of the mechanisms used by people experiencing this stress is mobility, e.g. different forms of migration. Therefore, this research project seeks to explore to what extent changing weather patterns influence people’s decisions to migrate. The Rainfalls project has three objectives: 1) to understand how rainfall variability, food and livelihood security, and migration interact today, 2) to understand how these factors might interact in coming decades as the impacts of climate change begin to be felt more strongly and 3) to work with communities to identify ways to manage rainfall variability, food and livelihood security, and migration.

ผลที่คาดว่าจะได้รับ

“The story” of the WtRF Thailand CSR The project’s research was conducted in four villages, two predominantly Thai and two ethnic Karen, in a typical upland rural setting in northern Thailand. During the period in late 2011 when the field research was conducted, Thailand suffered from one of the most severe flood events in decades. Heavy rains (28% more than normal between January and October) contributed to severe flooding and widespread damage in the lower Northern region as well as central region along the Chao Praya River Basin, including parts of Bangkok. Around 1.6 million hectares were affected, leading to the loss of one quarter of rice production, and the floods caused 730 deaths, and forced the closure of 9,859 factories employing 666,000 workers. The World Bank estimated the total economic damage and losses at US$ 45.7 Billion. The four study villages (Don-Moon, Sandonhom, Maebon-Tai and Huai-Ping) are located in Ban Puang sub-district 122 km south of the capital of Lamphun province. The area is hilly and forested, and the villages are located on the slopes along small rivers that drain into the Li River. As part of the larger structural transformation of the Thai economy over the last fifty years, Lamphun Province has undergone dramatic social and economic changes, moving from a physically isolated area subject to food insecurity to one increasingly integrated into a national market economy. Over recent decades, as the percentage of the population in northern Thailand engaged in subsistence agriculture has declined significantly, income from cash crops, along with weaving, remittances, small business/trade, and government social safety net programs (e.g. elder allowance) have become important elements of a more diversified set of livelihood options for the people of Lamphun Province. Thailand’s rapid and sustained economic growth has also contributed to a decline in the national poverty rate from 57 per cent in 1962/63 to 8 per cent in 2009. Poverty in Thailand is primarily a rural phenomenon, with 88 per cent of the country's 5.4 million poor living in rural areas, and the poverty rate in the Northern region in 2010 was 10.5 per cent, well above the national average of 7.7 per cent and much higher than in Bangkok (0.6 per cent). In the study area, significant differences were observed in socio-economic indicators between the two Thai villages and the two Karen villages, with income in the former more than double and education levels significantly higher as well. Landless and land-scarce households, along with those with high dependency ratios, have been found to be the most food insecure groups in Thailand, but only 2.4 per cent of households in the research villages were found to be landless. The average total annual rainfall in Lamphun is 1,017.03 mm. The analysis of local meteorological data reveals that annual rainfall has slightly increased during the last 30 years. Total annual rainfall above 1,200 mm, the average amount for Thailand, occurred more often during the past two decades (6 out of 7 peaks within the past 30 years). The participants in the study notice subtle changes of climate, including an increase of precipitation as well as temperature, particularly during the cold seasons. Villagers in the study area also reported being regularly exposed to rainfall-related stress, including dry spells, heavy rainfall, and the occurrence of flash floods. 87 per cent of interviewed households stated that over the last 10 to 20 years heavy rainfall events occurred more often. The extremely heavy and long rainfall in 2011 was a particularly dominant feature in the narratives of the villagers about climatic stress. As almost all households are engaged in agriculture, rainfall-related events had negative impacts on their production. The interviewed farmers reported decreases in quantity and quality of agricultural products such as maize. Rainfall-related events also cause damage to community infrastructure, including damaged roads and water reservoirs. The project’s research showed migration to be very common in the four villages, with 67 per cent of households reporting migration experience by one or more of its members. Out-migration from the area was found to have begun about fifty years ago, initially to other rural areas but increasingly over time to urban centers and international destinations as the Thai economy was transformed and integrated into world markets. The nature and motivating factors for migration have also shifted over time. While nearly 62 per cent of recorded trips (current and with return) were by males, women constitute fully half of current migrants; 38.6 per cent of current migration is motivated by education, whereas less than one-quarter of all recorded trips were motivated by non-economic factors. Three-quarters of current migrants are not married, and 85.5 per cent are temporal migrants who left the village for more than six months without returning. The most important migration destinations currently are all internal, with Bangkok accounting for 40 per cent and industrial estates (Lamphun, 25 per cent) and urban centers (Chiang Mai, 20 per cent) accounting for most of the balance. International migration was an important livelihood strategy among households in three of the four study villages (Don-Moon, Sandonhom and Haui-Ping) in the past. Now only 10.7 per cent of the current migrants are international, working primarily in Taiwan and Korea. Despite the negative impact of climatic stress, the majority of households reported that they were able to cope and adapt without the need to migrate. The majority of households are food secure, and the severity and frequency of climate stress do not currently exceed a threshold that in the people’s point of view necessitate migration. Good access to markets, as well as opportunities for alterative income generation, are factors that strengthen the food security status of households in the study area. Diversified on- and off-farm income generation activities, access to financial resources through community funds, and assistance from the local government are factors that reduce the vulnerability to rainfall-related stress. Migration from the study area is widespread and strongly associated with economic and social factors, but environmental factors play only a subordinate role in the decision of the people to migrate. Nonetheless, migration – through which livelihood strategies that transcend a single location are created – is an important dynamic to strengthen the resilience of communities in northern Thailand against climatic stress.



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